Experiment 1

Weak, non-informative prior

Fit model

Posterior checks

Results

NB Not a box plot: outer error bars are 95% HDI, inner error bars are 50% HDI.

95% CI
Parameter Std. Beta SE Lower Upper % inside ROPE Eff.Sample Rhat
Intercept 0.17 0.02 0.12 0.21 0.45 3209.36 1
influence_rate 0.37 0.05 0.26 0.47 0.00 3094.83 1

Bayes factors

Savage-Dickey Bayes Factor (BF10) = 253889245582274112.

Posterior evidence ratio (Bayesian p value) = 0.

Experiment 2

Weak, non-informative prior

Fit model

Posterior checks

Results

NB Not a box plot: outer error bars are 95% HDI, inner error bars are 50% HDI.

95% CI
Parameter Std. Beta SE Lower Upper % inside ROPE Eff.Sample Rhat
Intercept 0.19 0.03 0.13 0.25 0.18 2903.35 1
influence_rate 0.41 0.05 0.31 0.52 0.00 3505.53 1

Bayes factors

Savage-Dickey Bayes Factor (BF10) = 46383622024772182016.

Posterior evidence ratio (Bayesian p value) = 0.

Informed prior

Posterior of exp 1 as prior for exp 2

Parameterise the posterior distributions of the previous model (intercept, slope of influence rate, and its sigma) as normal distributions, use their M and SD as the prior for this model.

##        mean         sd
## 1 0.3674058 0.05471254

Fit model

Posterior checks

Results

NB Not a box plot: outer error bars are 95% HDI, inner error bars are 50% HDI.

95% CI
Parameter Std. Beta SE Lower Upper % inside ROPE Eff.Sample Rhat
Intercept 0.12 0.02 0.07 0.16 19.43 3377.22 1
influence_rate 0.39 0.04 0.32 0.46 0.00 3641.59 1

Bayes factors

Savage-Dickey Bayes Factor (BF10) = -0.018.

Posterior evidence ratio (Bayesian p value) = 0.

Experiment 3

Weak, non-informative prior

Fit model

Posterior checks

Results

NB Not a box plot: outer error bars are 95% HDI, inner error bars are 50% HDI.

95% CI
Parameter Std. Beta SE Lower Upper % inside ROPE Eff.Sample Rhat
Intercept 0.10 0.02 0.06 0.14 47.62 2974.45 1
influence_rate 0.59 0.04 0.51 0.68 0.00 2691.31 1

Bayes factors

Savage-Dickey Bayes Factor (BF10) = 1702613387701247232.

Posterior evidence ratio (Bayesian p value) = 1702613387701247232.

Informed prior

Posterior of exp 2 as prior for exp 3

Parameterise the posterior distributions of the previous model (intercept, slope of influence rate, and its sigma) as normal distributions, use their M and SD as the prior for this model.

##        mean         sd
## 1 0.3893986 0.03737608

Fit model

Posterior checks

Results

NB Not a box plot: outer error bars are 95% HDI, inner error bars are 50% HDI.

95% CI
Parameter Std. Beta SE Lower Upper % inside ROPE Eff.Sample Rhat
Intercept 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.10 98.33 3741.77 1
influence_rate 0.45 0.03 0.39 0.51 0.00 3512.80 1

Bayes factors

Savage-Dickey Bayes Factor (BF10) (with mu = 0) = 0.

Posterior evidence ratio (Bayesian p value) = 0.


  1. Ghent University. Email: ian.hussey@ugent.be